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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. What will JD Vance say during his Air Force commencement address?
What will JD Vance say during his Air Force commencement address?

What will JD Vance say during his Air Force commencement address?

27.0% (24h)
KalshiKalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee

This market resolved: Woke / DEI (99%)

Resolved: May 28, 2026, 6:56 PM

Winning Outcome

Woke / DEI

At 7 days out

—

At 24 hours out

—

Current implied probability
America First
America First 1%-27.0%
Leader of 22 outcomes
Market quality

56 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$3.9K

Liquidity

$3.2K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

- / 1.0%

Market data

Updated 15 days ago

Stale
May 26, 26, 3:00 PMJun 12, 26, 2:00 PM

Probability Timeline

America First16%
Trump (5+ times)50%
Woke / DEI8%
Biden1%
Drone1%
National Security1%
Department of War1%
Space Force89%
China / Chinese1%
AI / Artificial Intelligence35%
Nuclear51%
Event does not qualify2%
Invested / Investment1%
25063%
F-4720%
Iran / Iranian82%
Democrat1%
Marine75%
Venezuela1%
Hegseth1%
Manufacturing1%
Helicopter15%
0%25%50%75%100%May 28May 28May 28
Outcome24hChance
America First
America First
-27.0%
1%
Trump (5+ times)
Trump (5+ times)
-57.0%
1%
Woke / DEI
Woke / DEI
+72.0%
99%
Biden
Biden
-19.0%
1%
Drone
Drone
-60.0%
1%
National Security
National Security
-47.0%
1%

This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.

Rules

If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Video of the Commencement Address at the U.S.
  • Air Force Academy will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Commencement Address at the U.S.
  • Air Force Academy will be used.
  • Payout Criterion: The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
  • Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.

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What will JD Vance say during The View?

$13.5
Ceasefire: 35%KalshiKALSHI

Rules

If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Video of the Commencement Address at the U.S.
  • Air Force Academy will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Commencement Address at the U.S.
  • Air Force Academy will be used.
  • Payout Criterion: The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
  • Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.