Current implied probability
Barcelona 51%+20.0%Leader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$10.2K
Liquidity
$43K
High liquidityBid / Ask
41.0% / 49.0%
Spread
19.5%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
May 26, 26, 6:30 PMOct 9, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Barcelona51%
Volume trend
$10.2kJul 212d of dataJul 13
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If Julian Alvarez's next club is Real Madrid before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Transfer Details The market resolves to Yes if Julian Alvarez signs a contract to join Real Madrid, whether via transfer fee or as a free agent.
- If Julian Alvarez signs with a club and is immediately loaned out, the signing club resolves to Yes and all others resolve to No.
- The market resolves to Yes if Julian Alvarez is loaned to Real Madrid (temporary transfer of registration).
- If Julian Alvarez is currently signed to Real Madrid, the market resolves to Yes if re-signs or extends his contract with Real Madrid, or remains with the club without transferring.
- The market resolves to Yes if an official agreement is announced for Julian Alvarez to join Real Madrid at a future date (e.g., a pre-contract or transfer effective in a future window).