KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Arsenal (99%)
Resolved: Aug 8, 2026, 9:36 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Arsenal
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Current implied probability
Arsenal 86.1%+1.0ptLeader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$3.6K
Liquidity
$13.8K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 24 days ago
StaleJul 8, 26, 5:35 PMOct 9, 26, 2:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Arsenal99%
Manchester United9%
Barcelona1%
Real Madrid1%
Bayern Munich1%
Chelsea1%
Manchester City1%
PSG1%
86.1%
7.8%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
Rules
If Bruno Guimaraes's next club is Newcastle before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Transfer Details The market resolves to Yes if Bruno Guimaraes signs a contract to join Newcastle, whether via transfer fee or as a free agent.
- If Bruno Guimaraes signs with a club and is immediately loaned out, the signing club resolves to Yes and all others resolve to No. The market resolves to Yes if Bruno Guimaraes is loaned to Newcastle (temporary transfer of registration).
- If Bruno Guimaraes is currently signed to Newcastle, the market resolves to Yes if re-signs or extends his contract with Newcastle, or remains with the club without transferring.
- The market resolves to Yes if an official agreement is announced for Bruno Guimaraes to join Newcastle at a future date (e.g., a pre-contract or transfer effective in a future window).
Open markets
Sports
POLYMARKET2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
- Carlos Alcaraz+6.0pt33%
- Alexander Zverev+0.6pt23.3%
- Ben Shelton+1.4pt7.8%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $15.3M
- 24h Vol
- $2.5M
KALSHISeattle vs Boston: Total Runs
- Over 2.5 runs scored93%
- Over 3.5 runs scored86%
- Over 4.5 runs scored79%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.2M
- 24h Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz+7.0pt28.2%
- Alexander Zverev-1.0pt17.7%
- Ben Shelton7.3%
+32 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $14.6M
POLYMARKETEPL: 2027 Champion
- Arsenal+1.5pt49%
- Manchester City+1.0pt23.1%
- Chelsea-3.0pt13.5%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIBertola vs Kym
- Jerome Kym66.3%
- Remy Bertola33.7%
- Total Vol
- $1.8M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8M
KALSHIComesana vs Cobolli
- Flavio Cobolli-15.0pt66.3%
- Francisco Comesana+15.0pt33.7%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.7M
- 2027 Pro Football Champion
- LALIGA: 2027 Champion
- Omega European Masters Winner
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
- UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Pro Baseball Champion
- Liu vs Roura Llaverias
- College Football National Championship Winner
- Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
- US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet
- Cacao vs Moro Canas
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Lynx (BO3) - EPL Masters Group A
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Bruno Guimaraes: Next Club?
- Kalshi prices Arsenal at 86% as of August 8, 2026.
- When does Bruno Guimaraes: Next Club resolve?
- Bruno Guimaraes: Next Club is scheduled to resolve on October 9, 2026.
- How is Bruno Guimaraes: Next Club settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Bruno Guimaraes's next club is Newcastle before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.