KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: 7,785 or above (90%)
Resolved: Aug 13, 2026, 2:06 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
7,785 or above
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Current implied probability7,770 or above 99%Leader of 60 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$207.6K
Liquidity
$147.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
91.0% / 93.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleAug 12, 26, 8:00 PMAug 13, 26, 2:00 PM
Probability Timeline
7,785 or above90%
7,780 or above96%
7,775 or above97%
7,770 or above99%
7,765 or above99%
7,760 or above99%
7,750 or above66%
7,790 or above62%
7,810 or above0%
7,755 or above98%
7,745 or above57%
7,800 or above5%
7,795 or above29%
7,805 or above0%
7,740 or above0%
7,725 or above74%
7,730 or above75%
7,735 or above71%
7,815 or above0%
7,720 or above92%
7,710 or above99%
7,715 or above0%
7,685 or above0%
7,575 or above0%
7,580 or above0%
7,585 or above0%
7,590 or above0%
7,595 or above0%
7,600 or above0%
7,605 or above0%
7,610 or above0%
7,615 or above0%
7,620 or above0%
7,625 or above0%
7,630 or above0%
7,635 or above0%
7,640 or above0%
7,645 or above0%
7,650 or above0%
7,655 or above0%
7,660 or above0%
7,665 or above0%
7,670 or above0%
7,675 or above0%
7,680 or above0%
7,690 or above0%
7,695 or above0%
7,700 or above0%
7,705 or above0%
7,820 or above0%
7,825 or above0%
7,830 or above0%
7,835 or above0%
7,840 or above0%
7,845 or above0%
7,850 or above0%
7,855 or above0%
7,860 or above0%
7,865 or above0%
7,870 or above0%
90%
96%
97%
99%
99%
99%
Rules
If the S&P 500 index value on Aug 13, 2026 at 10am EDT is above 7574.9999, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market will close on August 13, 2026.
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after August 13, 2026.
- Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets.
- See the rules for more information.
- If the S&P 500 index value on Aug 13, 2026 at 10am EDT is above 7579.9999, then the market resolves to Yes.