KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (99%)
Resolved: Jul 21, 2026, 11:01 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Settlement provenance
- Standing outcome
- Yes
- Recorded
- Jul 26, 2026, 6:33 AM
- Observations
- 1
- Revisions
- 0
- Method
- resolution_watch
Current implied probabilityYes 99%
Market quality
35 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$7.6K
Liquidity
$5.6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
- / 100.0%
Market data
Updated 6 days ago
StaleJul 21, 26, 12:00 AMJul 21, 26, 8:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes99%
No1%
99%
1%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Yes
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 99% | — | $7.6K | $5.6K | 6 days ago | |
 Limitless71% match · auto | Low | 98% | — | $546.9 | $0 | 6 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Limitless
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Up or Down - Daily
Closed
Resolved
Yes (98.3%)
98.2%
1.8%
21 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$546.9
24h Vol$546.9
LIMITLESSRules
If the end-of-day price of the S&P 500 on July 21, 2026 is above 7443.28, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The target value is the end-of-day/closing price of the prior week's close.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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POLYMARKETActive in these topics
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If the end-of-day price of the S&P 500 on July 21, 2026 is above 7443.28, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The target value is the end-of-day/closing price of the prior week's close.