KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: No (58%)
Resolved: Jul 20, 2026, 11:01 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 20, 2026, 7:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Settlement provenance
- Standing outcome
- No
- Recorded
- Jul 25, 2026, 12:51 PM
- Observations
- 1
- Revisions
- 0
- Method
- resolution_watch
Current implied probabilityNo 58%
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$45.1K
Liquidity
$16.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
24.0% / 27.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 7 days ago
StaleJul 18, 26, 12:00 AMJul 20, 26, 8:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes42%
No58%
42%
58%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 58% | — | $45.1K | $16.5K | 7 days ago | |
 Limitless93% match · auto | Low | 50% | — | $0 | $0 | 7 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Limitless
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Up or Down - Daily
Closed
Resolved
No (50%)
50%
50%
15 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$818.1
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSRules
If the end-of-day price of the S&P 500 on July 20, 2026 is above 7457.69, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The target value is the end-of-day/closing price of the prior week's close.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.8k97.0%KALSHIYes8d ago
KALSHIYes8d agoVolume trend
$45.1kJul 183d of dataJul 20
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POLYMARKETActive in these topics
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If the end-of-day price of the S&P 500 on July 20, 2026 is above 7457.69, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The target value is the end-of-day/closing price of the prior week's close.