Current implied probability
79° or above 1%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$27
Liquidity
$25.6
Low liquidityBid / Ask
- / 1.0%
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jun 14, 26, 2:00 PMJun 16, 26, 8:00 AM
Trends
Selected outcome
79° or above1%
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 15?
10h
+14.5%33%
+20.0%30%
24%
+8 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$11.3K
24h Vol$11.3K
POLYMARKETRules
If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jun 15, 2026, is less than 71° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "San Francisco Airport" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jun 15, 2026, is less than 71° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "San Francisco Airport" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.