Current implied probability
69° to 70° 48%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.5K
Liquidity
$2.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
43.0% / 45.0%
Spread
4.7%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 28 minutes ago
Jul 25, 26, 2:00 PMJul 27, 26, 8:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
69° to 70°48%
Compare venues· 69° to 70°
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall86% match · auto | High | 36% | — | $13K | $52.2K | 8 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis page | Medium | 48% | — | $3.5K | $2.7K | 28 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 26?
4.5%4h
+3.0%36%
+4.5%35%
-2.5%17%
+8 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$16.3K
24h Vol$13K
POLYMARKETRules
If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 26, 2026, is less than 67° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "San Francisco Airport" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$3.5kJul 252d of dataJul 26
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If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 26, 2026, is less than 67° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "San Francisco Airport" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.