Current implied probability
112° or above 2%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.3K
Liquidity
$1.2K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
2.0% / 5.0%
Spread
150.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jul 14, 26, 2:00 PMJul 16, 26, 7:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
112° or above2%
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If the maximum temperature recorded at Phoenix for Jul 15, 2026, is less than 104° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLIPHX can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=psr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Phoenix, AZ" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.