Current implied probability
102° to 103° 10%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.3K
Liquidity
$4.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
9.0% / 10.0%
Spread
11.1%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jul 21, 26, 2:00 PMJul 23, 26, 6:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
102° to 103°10%
Compare venues· 104° to 105°
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall84% match · auto | High | 42% | — | $30.8K | $38.2K | 9 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis page | Medium | 50% | — | $5.3K | $4.3K | 9 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in Dallas on July 22?
1.0%5h
-1.0%42%
-1.0%28%
-4.5%18%
+8 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$34.4K
24h Vol$30.8K
POLYMARKETRules
If the maximum temperature recorded at Dallas for Jul 22, 2026, is less than 102° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLIDFW can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=fwd, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Dallas/Fort Worth, TX" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$5.3kJul 212d of dataJul 22
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If the maximum temperature recorded at Dallas for Jul 22, 2026, is less than 102° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLIDFW can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=fwd, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Dallas/Fort Worth, TX" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.