Current implied probability
73° to 74° 46%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
88 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$7.5K
Liquidity
$5.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
46.0% / 47.0%
Spread
2.2%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 27 minutes ago
Jul 21, 26, 2:00 PMJul 23, 26, 5:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
73° to 74°46%
Compare venues· 73° to 74°
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall84% match · auto | High | 51% | — | $16.4K | $67.1K | 7 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis page | High | 46% | — | $7.5K | $5.3K | 27 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 22?
14.0%9h
+14.0%51%
-6.0%23%
+2.0%16%
+8 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$16.8K
24h Vol$16.4K
POLYMARKETRules
If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 22, 2026, is less than 69° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 22, 2026, is between 69-70° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$7.5kJul 212d of dataJul 22
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FORECASTEXActive in these topics
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If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 22, 2026, is less than 69° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 22, 2026, is between 69-70° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.