US GDP growth in Q1 2026?
1.6% (24h)3mo
KalshiUS residents onlyKYC required2% feeMarket quality 55 • Medium qualityThin market199pt disagreement
Alerts
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Decision support
Current implied probability
Above 1.0% 90%
Market quality
55 / 100
Medium qualityBid / Ask
89.0% / 90.0%
Market data
Updated 27 minutes ago
Last updated: Apr 5, 10:09 PM
Resolves
Jul 30, 2026, 2:00 PM
24h Volume
$177.4
Liquidity
$2.6K
Spread
1.1%
Tight spread7d Change
-
Low liquidityThin marketNear resolution
Started Jan 24, 2026, 3:00 PMEnds Jul 30, 2026, 2:00 PM
Trends
No chart data available.
Outcome24hChance
Also available on Polymarket
KalshiLast updated: 27 minutes ago
Above 1.0%
0pt90%
Above 1.5%
0pt70%
Above 2.0%
0pt57%
Above 2.5%
0pt41%
Vol
$4.9K
24h Vol
$177.4
Liq
$2.6K
Spread: Tight spreadLiquidity: Low liquidity
US residents onlyKYC required2% feeSettles in USD
PolymarketLast updated: 4 minutes ago
Above 1.0%
▼ 90pt-
Above 1.5%
▼ 70pt-
Above 2.0%
▼ 57pt-
Above 2.5%
▼ 41pt-
Vol
$235.9K
24h Vol
$969.5
Liq
$22.3K
Spread: Wide spreadLiquidity: Low liquidity
Not available in USNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Rules
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q1 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.
- If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 2.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 2.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 3.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
