Data quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Sep 27, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Real Madrid 74.1%Leader of 3 outcomes
Real Madrid 74.1%Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Oct 10, 26, 7:00 PM UTCOct 12, 26, 7:00 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Villarreal vs the named outcome
- This market resolves to Yes if the named outcome wins the LaLiga match between the named outcome and Villarreal scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, based only on regulation time plus stoppage time and excluding extra time and penalties.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No. The Underlying is the official result of the specified sporting event after regulation time plus stoppage time only.
- Source Agencies, in order, are the league governing the event (LaLiga), ESPN, Fox Sports, and the broadcast partner of the event.
- If the Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date (including because the event is cancelled or a team forfeits, withdraws, or is disqualified), the Exchange may determine payouts pursuant to the Market Outcome Review Process.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Soccer_Match_Terms_and_Conditions_d44ee81f-1008-4300-b572-0982b2d9c57f.pdf)
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Real Madrid vs Villarreal · Real Madrid 73%
- Also available on Polymarket — Real Madrid CF vs. Villarreal CF · Real Madrid 73%
