GeminiKYC requiredVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Sep 17, 2026, 5:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Louisville 52.5%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
52.0% / 53.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Sep 19, 26, 7:30 PM UTCSep 20, 26, 7:30 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
SMU vs Louisville
- This market resolves to Yes if Louisville wins the College Football game between Louisville and SMU originally scheduled for September 19, 2026 at 3:30 PM.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No. The Underlying is the official result of the specified sporting event.
- Source Agencies, in order, are the league governing the event, ESPN, Fox Sports, and the broadcast partner of the event .
- If the Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date (including because the event is cancelled or a team forfeits, withdraws, or is disqualified), the Exchange may determine payouts pursuant to the Market Outcome Review Process.
- View the [full rules](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/NCAA_FBS_Win-Loss_23ef351f-7ee0-4503-a740-5da5c95d4b2c.pdf).
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Louisville is 53%. Quotes span about 1 percentage point between the widest venues. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference Louisville 53% · 2 venues · 1 pt venue spread
- Also available on Polymarket — SMU vs. Louisville · SMU vs. Louisville: O/U 58.5 — Over 52%
- Also available on Kalshi — SMU vs Louisville · Louisville 52%
Open markets
Sports
KALSHIBiltmore Championship Asheville Winner
- Max Greyserman+5.0pt5.8%
- Eric Cole+3.5pt5.8%
- Ben Kohles+3.5pt4.8%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $7.5M
KALSHIBMW PGA Championship Winner
- Ludvig Åberg+8.1pt12.5%
- Aaron Rai+6.3pt8%
- Adam Scott+5.7pt7.1%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)MLB: New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins (Sep 16, 2026)
- MIN75%
- NYY-32.0pt25%
- Total Vol
- $3.5M
- 24h Vol
- $3.5M
KALSHIMilwaukee vs Pittsburgh
- Pittsburgh+45.0pt89.9%
- Milwaukee-48.0pt10.1%
- Total Vol
- $3.3M
- 24h Vol
- $3.2M
KALSHIBiltmore Championship Asheville End of Round 1 Leader
- Max Greyserman+15.5pt14.5%
- Eric Cole+12.6pt12%
- Benjamin James+5.1pt6%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIReal Betis vs Getafe
- Real Betis+25.0pt83.2%
- Tie-12.0pt13.9%
- Getafe-14.0pt3%
- Total Vol
- $2.5M
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- College Football National Championship Winner
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for SMU vs Louisville?
- Gemini prices Louisville at 53% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does SMU vs Louisville resolve?
- SMU vs Louisville is scheduled to resolve on September 20, 2026.
- How is SMU vs Louisville settled?
- Gemini settles this market as follows: SMU vs Louisville
- Where else is SMU vs Louisville listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket, Kalshi.