Current implied probability
Real Madrid 76.4%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$166.2
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 15, 26, 7:30 PM UTCSep 17, 26, 7:30 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
the named outcome vs Elche
- This market resolves to Yes if the named outcome wins the LaLiga match between the named outcome and Elche scheduled for September 15, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET, based only on regulation time plus stoppage time and excluding extra time and penalties.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No. The Underlying is the official result of the specified sporting event after regulation time plus stoppage time only.
- Source Agencies, in order, are the league governing the event (LaLiga), ESPN, Fox Sports, and the broadcast partner of the event.
- If the Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date (including because the event is cancelled or a team forfeits, withdraws, or is disqualified), the Exchange may determine payouts pursuant to the Market Outcome Review Process.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Soccer_Match_Terms_and_Conditions_d44ee81f-1008-4300-b572-0982b2d9c57f.pdf)
Prediction Source Comparison
3 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Real Madrid is 77%. Quotes span about 3 percentage points between the widest venues. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference Real Madrid 77% · 3 venues · 3 pt venue spread
- Also available on Futuur — Elche vs. Real Madrid · Real Madrid 73%
- Also available on Myriad — Elche CF vs. Real Madrid: Who wins? · Real Madrid 85%
- Also available on Limitless — LaLiga, Elche vs Real Madrid · Real Madrid 75%
- Also available on Polymarket — Elche CF vs. Real Madrid CF · Real 75%
- Also available on Kalshi — Elche vs Real Madrid · Real Madrid 75%
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Real Madrid vs Elche?
- Gemini prices Real Madrid at 76% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does Real Madrid vs Elche resolve?
- Real Madrid vs Elche is scheduled to resolve on September 17, 2026.
- How is Real Madrid vs Elche settled?
- Gemini settles this market as follows: the named outcome vs Elche
- Where else is Real Madrid vs Elche listed?
- The same question is also listed on Futuur, Myriad, Limitless, Polymarket, Kalshi.