GeminiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Louisville wins by more than 4.5 points
Resolved: Oct 10, 2026, 2:51 AM
Provider-verified resolution
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Winning Outcome
Louisville wins by more than 4.5 points
At 7 days out
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At 24 hours out
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 10, 2026, 2:57 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Florida State wins by more than 13.5 points29.5%
Louisville wins by more than 4.5 points100%
Louisville wins by more than 2.5 points100%
Louisville wins by more than 6.5 points100%
Florida State wins by more than 1.5 points0%
Florida State wins by more than 5.5 points0%
Florida State wins by more than 2.5 points0%
Florida State wins by more than 6.5 points0%
Florida State wins by more than 3.5 points0%
Louisville wins by more than 14.5 points100%
Florida State wins by more than 9.5 points0%
Louisville wins by more than 21.5 points100%
Louisville wins by more than 10.5 points100%
Louisville wins by more than 23.5 points100%
Louisville wins by more than 5.5 points100%
Louisville wins by more than 3.5 points100%
Florida State wins by more than 17.5 points0%
Louisville wins by more than 4.5 pointsWon
Louisville wins by more than 2.5 pointsLost
Louisville wins by more than 1.5 pointsLost
Louisville wins by more than 6.5 pointsLost
Louisville wins by more than 7.5 pointsLost
Louisville wins by more than 17.5 pointsLost
Louisville wins by more than 14.5 pointsLost
Louisville wins by more than 20.5 pointsLost
Louisville wins by more than 16.5 pointsLost
Louisville wins by more than 9.5 pointsLost
Louisville wins by more than 13.5 pointsLost
Louisville wins by more than 11.5 pointsLost
Louisville wins by more than 21.5 pointsLost
Louisville wins by more than 10.5 pointsLost
Louisville wins by more than 23.5 pointsLost
Louisville wins by more than 5.5 pointsLost
Louisville wins by more than 3.5 pointsLost
Florida State wins by more than 1.5 pointsLost
Louisville wins by more than 27.5 pointsLost
Florida State wins by more than 5.5 pointsLost
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KalshiRules
What will the point difference be?
- This market resolves to Yes if the score differential recorded in favor of Louisville in the entire college football game between Florida State and Louisville scheduled for 2026-10-09 at 6:00 p.m. CT is above 4.5.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No. The Underlying is the score differential (Louisville's score minus Florida State's score) for the specified game.
- Source Agencies, in order, are the league governing the event (NCAAF), ESPN, Fox Sports, and the official broadcast partner of the event.
- If the Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date (including because the event is cancelled or a team forfeits, withdraws, or is disqualified), the Exchange may determine payouts pursuant to the Market Outcome Review Process.
- View the [full rules](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Terms_and_Conditions_NCAA_CFB_Spread_Class_941e2dcb-07e0-4ee4-9d21-bdd1a7612f13.pdf).