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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Politik
  3. KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory
KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory

KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory

PolitikOne-OffUS PoliticsWahl
PolymarketPolymarketGeschlossenVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% Gebühr

Dieser Markt ist geschlossen und wartet auf eine bestätigte Auflösung.

Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Gallrein 9%+
Gallrein 9%+ 99%-0.1%
Führend unter 8 Optionen
Marktqualitat

56 / 100

Mittlere Qualität
24h-Volumen

30,3 €

Liquidität

36.636,5 €

Hohe Liquidität
Geld / Brief

0.1% / 0.2%

Spread

100.0%

Breiter Spread
7d-Änderung

+0.1%

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten

18. Mai 26, 15:1819. Mai 26, 0:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit
Gallrein 9%+
Gallrein 9%+
-0.1%
99%
Gallrein 6-9%
Gallrein 6-9%
+0.1%
1%
Massie 6%+
Massie 6%+
0%
Gallrein 3-6%
Gallrein 3-6%
0%
Massie 3-6%
Massie 3-6%
0%
Gallrein <3%
Gallrein <3%
0%

Dieser Markt ist geschlossen. Demo-Trading ist nur bei offenen Märkten verfügbar.

KalshiAuch verfügbar auf Kalshi

Margin of victory in the KY-04 Republican primary?

Margin of victory in the KY-04 Republican primary?

Geschlossen

Aufgelöst

Ed Gallrein, 5-10% (95%)

Ed Gallrein, 10-15%
Ed Gallrein, 10-15%
1%
Ed Gallrein, 0-5%
Ed Gallrein, 0-5%
0%
Ed Gallrein, ≥20%
Ed Gallrein, ≥20%
0%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

44 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen41.223,9 €
24h-Volumen63,8 €
KalshiKALSHI

Regeln

The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026

Polymarket
  • This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
  • For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates.
  • Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
  • If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
  • If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.

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Regeln

The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026

Polymarket
  • This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
  • For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates.
  • Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
  • If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
  • If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.