PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitJa 12%-0.0%
Marktqualitat
73 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
9273,3 €
Liquidität
40.791,1 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
11.0% / 12.0%
Spread
9.1%
Breiter Spread7d-Änderung
-7.0%
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute
27. Mai 26, 16:5530. Juni 26, 0:00
Trends
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Yes12%
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions.
- A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
- A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
- General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.