Will ""You Have Not Been a Good User" (LessWrong's ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
UnterhaltungOne-OffMusic1JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 84.1%
Prognostiker
7
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet1. Apr. 26, 22:11 UTC1. Feb. 28, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will "Is Mythos good at cyber because it kept hacki..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "AI 2040: Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Help me launch Obsolete: a book aimed at buil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRunner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
KalshiRunner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
KalshiWestside Whimsy: First Week Album Equivalent Units
KalshiRegeln
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post "You Have Not Been a Good User" (LessWrong's second album) is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Offene Märkte
EntertainmentKALSHIOscar Winner: Best Picture
- The Odyssey-3.0pt51%
- Digger+1.0pt12%
- Dune: Part Three11%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 137.089 €
POLYMARKET# of views of MrBeast Gaming video week 1?
- 40–45M-8.3pt52.5%
- 45–50M+18.5pt43.4%
- 50M+-2.3pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIToronto International Film Festival: People's Choice Award
- I Play Rocky-40.0pt21.2%
- The Debut20.4%
- Wild Horse Nine10.6%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 38.420,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Dee Valladares+1.0pt26.1%
- Rick Devens-2.0pt19.8%
- Yash Patel+2.0pt18.9%
+14 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden-17.1pt34%
- No Bond chosen-0.7pt21.4%
- Callum Turner+5.1pt14.6%
+21 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIOscar Winner: Best Actor
- Matt Damon-2.0pt20.5%
- Tom Cruise+5.0pt18.9%
- John Malkovich-2.0pt18.9%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 579.531,6 €
- Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
- Contender Series: Ravello vs Cavalcanti
- Runner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
- Forgotten Island · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Resident Evil · Rotten Tomatoes score
- The Game Awards: Game of the Year
- Steam: Weekly Top Seller
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- How many people will attend Broadway shows during the 2026–27 season?
- I Play Rocky · Rotten Tomatoes score
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will ""You Have Not Been a Good User" (LessWrong's ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 84% (Stand: 15. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will ""You Have Not Been a Good User" (LessWrong's ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? entschieden?
- Will ""You Have Not Been a Good User" (LessWrong's ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? soll am 1. Februar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will ""You Have Not Been a Good User" (LessWrong's ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.