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Will ACE recommend any orgs doing direct (non-research) interventions in wild animal suffering by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill farmed-invertebrate welfare (shrimp, insects, octopi, etc) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill mental-health / subjective-wellbeing interventions in LMIC get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhere will it rain on Oct 27, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in New York City on Oct 27, 2026?
KalshiRegeln
To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that I believe qualify as wild-animal-welfare grants, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.
- See this EA Forum tag for a definition of "Wild animal welfare" as a cause area.
- For the purposes of this question, fishing-related interventions are considered farmed-animal welfare.
- "EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel.
- This is obviously a fuzzy distinction (what if one of the aforementioned billionares becomes noticeably more EA-influenced by 2030? etc), but I'll try my best to resolve the question in the spirit of reflecting how the EA community has grown over time.
- For markets about other cause-area-candidates (like farmed-invertebrate welfare and climate geoengineering!), check out the "New EA Cause Area?" tag!