Will we learn that somebody started/extended a wildfire to win money on a prediction market before September 2027
WetterOne-Off10MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 77.6%
Prognostiker
4
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet19. Juli 26, 15:57 UTC31. Aug. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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KalshiRegeln
Must be real money prediction markets.
- Based on credible reporting, does not need to be a conviction.
- Conspiring with others to start a fire, bribing someone to start the fire for you etc. is enough to resolve YES, if it results in an intentional fire.
- Actively helping an existing fire to spread, including making it difficult for firefighters or other services to respond to the fire appropraitely (or conspiring to do it) is also enough to resolve YES.
- Inaction is by itself not enough to resolve YES.
- Partly subjective resolution, won't bet on this market.