Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 77%
Prognostiker
6
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Minuten
7. Okt. 26, 21:01 UTC31. Dez. 29, 11:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
By 2030, there will be a prediction market w/ 1M+ MAU that resolves predictions using an AI model exclusively
Manifold MarketsWill Balaji's Network School announce a shutdown or relocation away from Malaysia before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiBTC price range on Oct 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiTokenized stocks available on Coinbase by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if a new prediction market company or independent trading platform launches to the public between October 7, 2026, and December 31, 2029, inclusive.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- To qualify as a "new prediction market company or platform," the launch must meet all of the following criteria:
- New Entity/Platform: It must be a newly incorporated company, an independent startup, or a brand-new decentralized protocol launched after October 7, 2026.
- Exclusions: A new feature, tab, or service introduced by an already existing company (e.g., Robinhood, Coinbase, or Interactive Brokers adding event contracts) does not qualify, unless it is spun out into a distinct, newly incorporated corporate entity.