Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 77.7%
Prognostiker
56
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet2. Juni 24, 19:17 UTC5. März 31, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
[Metaculus] Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Harris, Texas in 2026?
ForecastExWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Texas in 2026?
ForecastExWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Florida in 2026?
ForecastExRegeln
Resolves as YES if, by January 1st, 2031, a decentralized platform that aims to provide a similar or superior service to Wikipedia has been widely recognized as a major competitor.
- This platform must meet the following criteria:
- Decentralized Nature: The platform must operate on a decentralized network, such as a blockchain or other distributed ledger technology, without a single point of control.
- User Base: It must have a substantial user base, comparable to or exceeding 15% of Wikipedia's active monthly users.
- Content Quality and Quantity: The platform should host a significant amount of content, with both the quality and breadth of articles comparable to Wikipedia.
- Recognition: It must be recognized by reputable sources in the technology or information sectors as a major competitor to Wikipedia.
