Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 60%
Prognostiker
74
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet23. Feb. 24, 20:37 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will there be an Unsong musical by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIs Digger (2026) a musical?
Manifold MarketsCMA Awards: Musical Event of the Year
KalshiWill ""You Have Not Been a Good User" (LessWrong's ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRunner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
KalshiRunner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
KalshiRegeln
[image]I will create polls on Manifold and the ACX discord.
- To address survivorship bias, if the musical never happens, I will ask the creators why not.
- If they say that they cancelled it because it was going to be too hard to make it any good, I will resolve NO.
- If it was shelved for any other reason, I will resolve N/A. THE FINE PRINT:
- When summing results of multiple polls I will weigh the two equally, not in proportion to # of respondents.
Offene Märkte
MusicKALSHIRunner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
- Choosin' Texas81.5%
- Sunflower5%
- Dai Dai3.4%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 15.408,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 15.408,6 €
KALSHITaylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 14, 2026 - September 20, 2026)
- Above 13.9M99%
- Above 14M99%
- Above 13.7M99%
+28 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 13.792,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 13.792,9 €
KALSHIRunner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
- Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip12%
- Parvati5%
- SaWaDiKa (Official Music Video)1%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 12.168,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
KALSHIWestside Whimsy: First Week Album Equivalent Units
- Above 65K99%
- Above 10K99%
- Above 25K99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 54.124,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 8154,7 €
KALSHIStagecoach 2027: Headliner(s)
- Garth Brooks+27.0pt94%
- Jason Aldean25%
- Megan Moroney16%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 11.725,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
KALSHIWho Will Perform at Red Rocks in 2027?
- Blues Traveler89%
- Widespread Panic88%
- The String Cheese Incident+39.0pt86%
+32 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.731,4 €
- Westside Whimsy: First Week Pure Album Sales
- Drake: Highest daily view count in September 2026
- Top artist on Spotify in 2026?
- #2 Spotify song in the US this week? (September 18)
- #2 Spotify Song 2026
- #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Sep 26, 2026?
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Top Artist on Spotify U.S. 2026
- Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
- Top Song on Spotify in 2026?
- Billboard #1 Artist 2026
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the Unsong musical be good??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 60% (Stand: 15. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the Unsong musical be good? entschieden?
- Will the Unsong musical be good? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the Unsong musical be good? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: [image]I will create polls on Manifold and the ACX discord.