Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will mana become less valuable by 2028? (Experimental)?

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 57.3% (Stand: 27. Oktober 2026).

Will mana become less valuable by 2028? (Experimental)

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Nein 57.3%

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

binary

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 23 Stunden

Veraltet

11. Sept. 25, 20:29 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Regeln

At the start of 2028, resolve YES if and only if there is some option (any bulk) that costs less than $1 per 120 mana.

Note that the equilibrium probability for this market is lower than its true probability.
This is because betting NO pays out high-value mana (by definition) and loses low-value mana (again by definition), while YES does the opposite.
(the most extreme case would be something like "will Manifold still exist", where the equilibrium would be 100%).
This is also experimental to see what happens in a situation like this