Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 50%
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Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet26. März 26, 15:14 UTC30. Sept. 26, 15:09 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Conditional on buying a personal mini-air-conditioner, will I regret the purchase come summers-end?
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KalshiRegeln
I will be doing the AFFINE alignment seminar for one month in a Czech castle, and also do my high school final exams the same time.
- By September 2026, will I regret having done AFFINE instead of just finals (100%) or not having committed to AFFINE fully? (0%).
- It is noteworthy that AFFINE will likely have a year-long extension for 10 potential promising ASI alignment researchers, out of ~30.
- My chance is lower by committing less.
- Similarly, I may have worse final exam results, but the consequences of this don't seem very clear, given I don't care much which university I go to.
- If I regret nothing, that would be great and id just pick the one I'm closer to regretting.
Offene Märkte
Society & CultureKALSHINew River Gorge recreation visits in 2026
- Above 1.8 million96%
- Above 1.7 million96%
- Above 1.9 million89%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 17.977,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5921,5 €
KALSHIWill the Kennedy Center be demolished in 2026?
- No94%
- Yes6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 799,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 799,2 €
POLYMARKETIs Earth flat?
- No+0.1pt99%
- Yes-0.1pt1%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 50.457,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 558,3 €
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- Yes+9.0pt58.4%
- No-9.0pt41.6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 7144,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 542,3 €
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No+4.0pt79.2%
- Yes-4.0pt20.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 19.972,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 528,3 €
FORECASTEXWill University of Michigan rank first for public universities in 2027?
- No94%
- Yes6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 522,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 522,5 €
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will I regret AFFINE or school??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 50% (Stand: 17. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will I regret AFFINE or school? entschieden?
- Will I regret AFFINE or school? soll am 30. September 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will I regret AFFINE or school? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: I will be doing the AFFINE alignment seminar for one month in a Czech castle, and also do my high school final exams the same time.