Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 56.2%
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3
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet18. Juni 26, 22:58 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin?
Manifold MarketsWill @AidanFitzzz finally write his great american novel by EOY2031
Manifold Markets"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketHighest grossing movie in 2026?
Polymarket# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
PolymarketNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiRegeln
I've been working on an epic historical fantasy novel for several years.
- As of the creation of this market, I have written about 131k words (roughly 580 pages), and I estimate that I am about 90% done, but I think any novelist would tell you that these kinds of estimates are tricky.
- Progress has slowed to a crawl since my second child was born last October, but I am determined to finish it.
- Resolves YES if the final chapter is completed by December 31st, 2026 Otherwise Resolves NO
- Some useful context:
- I have finished four first drafts of previous novels, ranging in length from ~60k to ~120k words.
Offene Märkte
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 342.752,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 91.191,2 €
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 182.400 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 90.788,6 €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+25.1pt47.2%
- No Bond chosen-3.1pt18.9%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+8.0pt46%
- Jack Barton-4.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt18%
+27 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,8 Mio. €
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 264.563,9 €
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-53.0pt14%
- Above 50-56.0pt8%
- Above 55-48.0pt2%
+14 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 84.327,3 €
- Big Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Steam: Weekly Top Seller
- Oscar Winner: Best Actor
- #2 US Spotify Song 2026
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 56% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? entschieden?
- Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: I've been working on an epic historical fantasy novel for several years.