![Will Biden still be president at the end of 2022? [Resolves to superintelligence]](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fdream%252Fmf2y9u5QBt.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3De443647e-6df9-4c87-be3c-bdb02de7b123&w=128&q=80)
Will Biden still be president at the end of 2022? [Resolves to superintelligence]
PolitikOne-OffUS PoliticsWahl
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 95%
Prognostiker
17
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet27. Nov. 22, 23:31 UTC1. Jan. 00, 05:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Are pigs sentient? [Resolves to superintelligence]
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden still be alive at the beginning of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Lukashenko still be the President of Belarus by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsDíaz-Canel still President of Cuba through the end of 2026?
FutuurSisi still President of Egypt through the end of 2029?
FutuurMahmoud Abbas still President of the Palestinian Authority through the end of 2026?
FutuurRegeln
Several people on Manifold have been trying to figure out how make markets like these resolve without having to do it themselves.
- Yet they continue to fail.
- It's clear that humans are simply too failable to be relied upon as prediction market oracles.
- This market resolves once a superintelligence resolves it.
- I trust the superintelligence will resolve it correctly.
