Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 77.9%
Prognostiker
16
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet28. Juli 26, 00:12 UTC30. Nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PolymarketWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
KalshiWill a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a hurricane make landfall in North Carolina this year?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if at least one major hurricane makes landfall in the United States or its territories during the 2026 calendar year (January 1, 2026, through December 31, 2026).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Major Hurricane: Defined as a Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (maximum sustained surface winds of 111 mph / 96 knots or greater) at the time of landfall.
- Landfall: Defined by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as the intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline.
- A storm whose strongest winds or eyewall affect land but whose surface center remains entirely offshore does not constitute a landfall.
Offene Märkte
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 232.515,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 227.313,9 €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Houston+41.0pt71%
- Miami-6.0pt69%
+19 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 186.088,3 €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+36.0pt81.7%
- 90° to 91°-29.0pt7.7%
- 94° or above+3.0pt7.7%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt68.2%
- 82° to 83°-12.0pt24.3%
- 79° or below-3.0pt4.7%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No89%
- Yes-4.0pt11%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 66.667,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 28.645,4 €
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 8, 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 78% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*? entschieden?
- Will at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*? soll am 30. November 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria