Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 70.1%
Prognostiker
30
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Minuten
8. Aug. 26, 07:13 UTC1. Jan. 28, 05:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the US enter a recession in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWe're in an economically stagnant decade (2022-2032)
Manifold MarketsLeap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028?
Manifold MarketsNext Prime Minister of Romania?
PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiFIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner
KalshiRegeln
Codename: TAKEOFF
- Resolves YES if any AI model publicly released before January 1, 2028 receives an official general Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) score of 200 or higher.
- The model must be released before the deadline, but Epoch may score it afterward.
- The central general-ECI value in Epoch’s canonical score file controls—not confidence bounds or domain-specific scores.
- If Epoch changes its scale or stops publishing useful scores, MNX will use its published conversion or the closest credible reconstruction of the same threshold.
- Keep an eye on mnx.fi 👀
Offene Märkte
SportsKALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R13.9%
- Buffalo6.6%
- Seattle-1.0pt5.7%
+29 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 77,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 3,4 Mio. €
KALSHIInoue vs Adkar
- Hina Inoue99%
- Vaishnavi Adkar1%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,8 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,8 Mio. €
KALSHIAmgen Irish Open Winner
- Rory McIlroy+1.0pt14%
- Jon Rahm-0.2pt8%
- Tyrrell Hatton-0.5pt5%
+97 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHISekulic vs Matsuda
- Philip Sekulic93.1%
- Koki Matsuda6.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Bayern Munich+1.0pt15.1%
- Arsenal-1.0pt13.2%
+33 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: Alliance vs TYLOO (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
- 1 Winner100%
- 2 Winner100%
- Match Winner100%
+21 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1 Mio. €
- 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
- Counter-Strike: 9z vs G2 (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- San Francisco vs Los Angeles R
- MVP Winner?
- Nflgame 26 SEP 09 Nesea
- MLB: Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers (Sep 9, 2026)
- Ogura vs Hong
- Amgen Irish Open End of Round 1 Leader
- San Francisco vs Los Angeles: Spread
- NFL 2026-27: Champion
- Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
- US Open Women's Singles Winner
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 70% (Stand: 10. September 2026).
- Wann wird Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028? entschieden?
- Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028? soll am 1. Januar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Codename: TAKEOFF