Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Niftski 45.3%Führend unter 6 Optionen
Prognostiker
6
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet6. Aug. 26, 20:11 UTC1. Jan. 30, 21:01 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030
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Manifold MarketsRegeln
Incredibly, for the first time ever, it seems like a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun is actually going to humanly happen.
- Both LeKukie and Niftski are now explicitly aiming for a perfect run, something which was previously absurd to me as someone who has been following SMB1 (no L+R) any% progress for the past decade.
- The current world record at time of market creation is only 6 frames off of perfect.
- Resolution happens when someone gets a 4:54.265 (namely, 17,685 frames of gameplay) that is verified on the any% page on speedrun.com.
- If the current input swapping ruleset kerfuffle causes contention I'll defer to the speedrun.com leaderboard.
- In the unlikely event that a new strategy is discovered that lowers our notion of "perfect" (which hasn't happened in over 15 years!) I will continue to evaluate based on the first person to get the current 4:54.265 goal time that everyone is competing over.
Offene Märkte
Esports
POLYMARKETLoL: Invictus Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
- Game Handicap: IG (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5)+77.5pt100%
- Game 1 Winner+43.5pt100%
- Game 2 Winner+42.0pt100%
+60 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 5,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 4,8 Mio. €
POLYMARKETLoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Playoffs
- Game 1 Winner+48.0pt100%
- Match Winner+46.5pt100%
- Game Handicap: DK.C (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5)+64.5pt100%
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- Match Winner+3.0pt71%
- 2 Winner-1.5pt66%
- 1 Winner+1.0pt65%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: PARIVISION vs TYLOO (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
- 1 Winner+45.5pt100%
- 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5+49.5pt100%
- Match Winner+23.0pt88%
+15 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FURIA (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
- 1 Winner+58.6pt91%
- 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs GamerLegion (+3.5)+25.0pt74%
- O/U 2.5 Games+30.0pt70%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETDota 2: Power Rangers vs HULIGANI (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs
- Game 2 Winner100%
- O/U 2.5 Games100%
- Ends in Daytime100%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 308.197,2 €
- Nongshim Esports Academy vs. Dplus KIA Challengers
- Astralis vs. G2
- TYLOO vs. PARIVISION
- FURIA vs. GamerLegion
- LoL: White Dragons vs Dominion Goblins (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs
- Counter-Strike: Phantom Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs
- Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs K27 (BO3) - 1win Private Club #1: Closed Qualifier Playoffs
- Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group C
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs FUT Esports (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #8 Group Stage
- Counter-Strike: Fortress vs ENCE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Who will be first to perform a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Niftski mit 45% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Who will be first to perform a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun? entschieden?
- Who will be first to perform a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Who will be first to perform a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Incredibly, for the first time ever, it seems like a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun is actually going to humanly happen.