Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Niftski 45.3%Führend unter 6 Optionen
Niftski 45.3%Prognostiker
6
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet6. Aug. 26, 20:11 UTC1. Jan. 30, 21:01 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie gross more worldwide than the original after one year of its release?
Manifold MarketsWill a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030
Manifold MarketsThe Super Mario Bros. Movie Stock
Manifold MarketsWill the 120 Star speedrun World Record for Super Mario 64 be less than 1h34m00s on Jan 1st 2028? (1h33mXXs)
Manifold MarketsWorlds 2026: Winner
PolymarketWorlds 2026 Champion
KalshiRegeln
Incredibly, for the first time ever, it seems like a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun is actually going to humanly happen.
- Both LeKukie and Niftski are now explicitly aiming for a perfect run, something which was previously absurd to me as someone who has been following SMB1 (no L+R) any% progress for the past decade.
- The current world record at time of market creation is only 6 frames off of perfect.
- Resolution happens when someone gets a 4:54.265 (namely, 17,685 frames of gameplay) that is verified on the any% page on speedrun.com.
- If the current input swapping ruleset kerfuffle causes contention I'll defer to the speedrun.com leaderboard.
- In the unlikely event that a new strategy is discovered that lowers our notion of "perfect" (which hasn't happened in over 15 years!) I will continue to evaluate based on the first person to get the current 4:54.265 goal time that everyone is competing over.