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| # | Name | Price | 1h % | 24h % | 7d % | Market Cap | Volume(24h) | Circulating Supply | Last 7 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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When will U.S. ground forces first enter Iranian territory? (April 2026)
17TManifold MarketsKein KYCAlarme
Folge diesem Markt, um Alarme zu erstellen.
Prognosekontext
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
April 8 - 14 2.3%
Prognostiker
15
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
VeraltetZuletzt aktualisiert: 12. Apr., 21:17
Auflosung
30.04.2026, 23:59
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
-
Start 08.04.2026, 03:52Ende 30.04.2026, 23:59
Trends
Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit
Regeln
This market will resolve to YES for the bucket corresponding to the Washington, D.C. (Eastern Time) date that conventional or special operations ground forces of the United States first physically enter the sovereign land territory of Iran. All other options will resolve to NO.
- If no such confirmation occurs by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to Not in April 2026.
- Sovereign Land Territory: Includes the Iranian mainland and internationally recognized Iranian islands (e.g., Kharg Island, Abu Musa, Sirri Island), as well as physically boarding and occupying Iranian-flagged offshore oil platforms within Iranian territorial waters.
- Ground Forces: Implies intentional "boots on the ground" deployments for the purpose of combat, raiding, sabotage, or occupation. This includes both conventional infantry/armor units (e.g., Marines, Army Airborne) and special operations forces (e.g., Navy SEALs, Delta Force, Army Rangers).
- Resolution will be based on official government or military announcements from the United States (e.g., Department of Defense press releases, Presidential addresses), or strong, corroborated consensus reporting from top-tier, credible international news organizations (e.g., AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WSJ) confirming the specific date the physical incursion began.
- Exclusions (NOT a YES):
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