Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2029 24.2%-0.4ptFührend unter 10 Optionen
Prognostiker
17
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
-0.3 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Minuten
17. Nov. 23, 22:04 UTC1. Jan. 34, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
What is the first year in which a rider other than Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard wins the Tour de France?
Manifold MarketsWill Tadej Pogacar win the Tour de France a record-breaking 6 times?
Manifold MarketsWill Tadej Pogacar win the 2027 Tour de France?
Manifold MarketsUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
PolymarketUS Open Men's Singles Winner
Kalshi2027 Pro Football Champion
KalshiRegeln
Resolves Yes to the first calendar year where Tadej Pogacar does not start the first stage (or prologue) of the Tour de France.
- If he appears on the startlist but does not actually start the stage, that is probably a DNS.
- If he appears on the startlist, starts the first stage, and quits before it is over, that is probably NOT a DNS.
- If the Tour de France is not held in any season, I am going to N/A this question because that is simply not what I am interested in.
- I don't want anyone to need to calculate "The TDF stops existing" into their valuations.
- So just assume the TDF happens every year.
Offene Märkte
SportsPOLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 3.5+34.5pt100%
- Michelsen Set 3 Winner+45.5pt100%
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 4.5+70.5pt100%
+25 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5,9 Mio. €
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Arsenal15.1%
- Bayern Munich13.2%
+33 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 24,5 Mio. €
KALSHIHouston vs Philadelphia
- Houston+48.0pt91.1%
- Philadelphia-48.0pt8.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz+1.0pt58%
- Alexander Zverev+4.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton+2.0pt9%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 24,6 Mio. €
KALSHIBrace vs Sorribes Tormo
- Cadence Brace52%
- Sara Sorribes Tormo48%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
KALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Carlos Alcaraz-1.0pt77.2%
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt22.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,8 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 2029 mit 24% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France? entschieden?
- What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France? soll am 1. Januar 2034 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves Yes to the first calendar year where Tadej Pogacar does not start the first stage (or prologue) of the Tour de France.