Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 75.9%
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Veraltet17. Okt. 23, 18:41 UTC2. Jan. 39, 07:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Where will it rain on Oct 18, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in New York City on Oct 18, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 18, 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain this weekend (Oct 17 - Oct 18)?
KalshiHighest temperature in Miami on Oct 18, 2026?
KalshiWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 84 F on October 18, 2026? (maximum) (max) (hottest)?
ForecastExRegeln
This question resolves true if, looking back in 15 years, it's obviously the case that:
- "In 2023, the marginal smart, ethical person should have gone into AI rather than climate"
- This question resolves false if it's obviously the case that:
- "In 2023, the marginal smart, ethical person should have gone into climate rather than AI"
- Resolves n/a otherwise.
- I'll assume that in either field the person would work on the top 5% of most effective interventions, as judged post-hoc, and that we're only evaluating impact (not salary, personal fit, other idiosyncratic factors).