Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseBelow normal (2.53 < ACE < 73) 97.5%-0.1ptFührend unter 6 Optionen
Prognostiker
36
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+0.6 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert2. Mai 26, 05:37 UTC30. Nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
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Manifold MarketsWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PolymarketWill there be 110 or more retired Atlantic hurricane names by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Activity is tracked in terms of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy.
- This Wikipedia page has a list of previous Atlantic hurricane seasons by ACE.
- If the value is 10 or more ACE away from one of the cutoff values, this market resolves in January 2025 to whatever value is listed on Wikipedia.
- If it is close to a cutoff, the market resolves after the reanalysis of all storms is completed (usually in April) to account for postseason adjustments in ACE.
- The last ten years had the following activity: Near normal: 2022 Above normal: 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2025 Hyperactive: 2017, 2020, 2024
- The least active season in recorded history was 1914, while the most active season was 1933.
