By 2040, will we believe the Great Sphinx was built substantially before the pyramids at Giza?
One-OffSociety & Culture14JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 74.6%
Prognostiker
10
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet9. Aug. 23, 07:00 UTC1. Jan. 41, 15:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the Great Pyramid of Giza still be standing in 4,500 years?
Manifold MarketsWill the "Colossus to Prometheus" statue be built somewhere in the San Francisco Bay before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the "the stitch" be built in Atlanta before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill 1% of Americans believe technology is most important problem in the US in 2026, according to Gallup?
Manifold MarketsWill Glacier National Park set a visitation record in 2026?
KalshiWho will be in the US News top 20 universities?
KalshiRegeln
This is a popular theory, but one unaccepted by the mainstream.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Sphinx_of_Giza#History
- I am defining 'substantially before' as 'before the Fourth Dynasty' (which was when the pyramids at Giza were built).(approx. 2600 BC)
- 'we believe' is tricky.
- If, before 2040, the Wikipedia entry for the Great Sphinx says that an earlier build date is either generally accepted or just the most likely theory, this resolves YES (as long as the Wikipedia page has stabilised).
- If, on 1.1.2040, the Wikipedia page says that this question is unclear, and that an earlier build date is approximately similarly credible to alternatives, this will resolve to 50/50.
Offene Märkte
Society & CultureKALSHINew River Gorge recreation visits in 2026
- Above 1.7 million96%
- Above 1.8 million92%
- Above 1.9 million90%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 33.065,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 4854,3 €
KALSHIWho will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- Notre Dame99%
- UCLA99%
- WashU99%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 32.601,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 3746,5 €
KALSHIWill Glacier National Park set a visitation record in 2026?
- Yes+11.0pt84%
- No16%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 6850,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2768,9 €
KALSHITSA avg check-ins from Sep 21 to 27, 2026?
- Above 2.35 million95%
- Above 2.4 million+32.0pt57%
- Above 2.45 million+9.0pt10%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 3744,6 €
KALSHIBozeman-area housing units authorized in 2026
- Above 950 units96%
- Above 1,100 units93%
- Above 1,250 units+8.0pt81%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 19.216,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
KALSHIWill the Kennedy Center be demolished in 2026?
- No94%
- Yes+2.0pt6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 11.778,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 539,8 €
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- 60 minutes: Joe Rogan joins as a Correspondent this year?
- What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
- Will UC Berkeley out-of-state tuition exceed $53,000 in 2026?
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Is Earth flat?
- Graham Platner divorce by October 31?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $56,000 in 2026?
- Will Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für By 2040, will we believe the Great Sphinx was built substantially before the pyramids at Giza??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 74.6% (Stand: 23. September 2026).
- Wann wird By 2040, will we believe the Great Sphinx was built substantially before the pyramids at Giza? entschieden?
- By 2040, will we believe the Great Sphinx was built substantially before the pyramids at Giza? soll am 1. Januar 2041 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird By 2040, will we believe the Great Sphinx was built substantially before the pyramids at Giza? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This is a popular theory, but one unaccepted by the mainstream.