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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. US Politics
  3. Who will leave their position in Starmer's cabinet before July?
Who will leave their position in Starmer's cabinet before July?

Who will leave their position in Starmer's cabinet before July?

4.0% (24h)One-OffUS PoliticsEurope19T
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ed Miliband
Ed Miliband 19%+4.0%
Führend unter 7 Optionen
Marktqualitat

28 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

1,7 €

Liquidität

129,5 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

14.0% / 18.0%

Spread

28.6%

Breiter Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten

4. Mai 26, 19:301. Juli 26, 3:59

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Ed Miliband19%

Regeln

If Rachel Reeves leaves as Chancellor before July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Rachel Reeves must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
  • Note: A Cabinet reshuffle in which the individual ceases to hold the specified role but remains a member of the Cabinet still qualifies as leaving the role
  • If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
  • Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
  • If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.

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Manifold Markets

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In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$62,810.62+2.16%EthereumETH$1,656.30+1.46%SolanaSOL$65.18+1.43%DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+1.39%XRPXRP$1.12+0.34%BNBBNB$596.37+1.73%

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Regeln

If Rachel Reeves leaves as Chancellor before July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Rachel Reeves must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
  • Note: A Cabinet reshuffle in which the individual ceases to hold the specified role but remains a member of the Cabinet still qualifies as leaving the role
  • If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
  • Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
  • If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.