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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Politik
  3. California Governor Primary margin of victory
California Governor Primary margin of victory

California Governor Primary margin of victory

1.0% (24h)PolitikOne-OffUS PoliticsWahl1J
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Xavier Becerra, 3+ pts
Xavier Becerra, 3+ pts 90%-1.0%
Führend unter 3 Optionen
Marktqualitat

28 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

1 €

Liquidität

98 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

85.0% / 99.0%

Spread

16.5%

Breiter Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 9 Minuten

4. Mai 26, 23:453. Nov. 27, 15:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Xavier Becerra, 3+ pts90%

PolymarketAuch verfügbar auf Polymarket

California Governor Primary Election: Margin of Victory?

California Governor Primary Election: Margin of Victory?

6.0%Geschlossen
Becerra <5%
Becerra <5%
+8.0%93%
Becerra 5–10%
Becerra 5–10%
-6.0%6%
Hilton Wins
Hilton Wins
+2.8%3%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen26.562,9 €
24h-Volumen1502,8 €
PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Regeln

If Xavier Becerra wins the 2026 gubernatorial primary election in California by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Xavier Becerra minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Xavier Becerra if Xavier Becerra wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Xavier Becerra loses.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
  • No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
  • For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.

Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.

Verwandte Märkte

Maine Senate margin of victory

Maine Senate margin of victory

34,2 €
Democrats, 3+ pts: 82%KalshiKALSHI
Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory

6,9 €
James Talarico, 3+ pts: 20%KalshiKALSHI
Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory

5,9 €
Ken Paxton, 3+ pts: 50%KalshiKALSHI
South Carolina Senate margin of victory

South Carolina Senate margin of victory

5,7 €
Republicans, 9+ pts: 45%KalshiKALSHI
Florida Senate margin of victory

Florida Senate margin of victory

3,2 €
Republicans, 8+ pts: 97%KalshiKALSHI
North Carolina Senate margin of victory

North Carolina Senate margin of victory

3 €
Republicans, 1+ pts: 15%KalshiKALSHI

In diesen Themen aktiv

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Regeln

If Xavier Becerra wins the 2026 gubernatorial primary election in California by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Xavier Becerra minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Xavier Becerra if Xavier Becerra wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Xavier Becerra loses.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
  • No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
  • For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.