How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?
2.0 Pkt. (24h)One-OffPolitikUS PoliticsWahl3Mon
KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGrob kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit2 67%-1.0ptFührend unter 4 Optionen
Marktqualitat
62 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
1263,2 €
Liquidität
177.548,2 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
21.0% / 26.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Breiter SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Minuten
23. Jan. 26, 21:003. Nov. 26, 15:00
Trends
0%
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
324%
Plattformen vergleichen· 3
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiDiese SeiteBeste insgesamt | Mittel | 24% | 0pt | 1263,2 € | 177.548,2 € | vor 15 Minuten | |
 Polymarket80% Übereinstimmung · geprüft | Niedrig | 79% | +55pt | 0 € | 4021,2 € | vor 15 Minuten | Öffnen → |
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
7.8 pts
-0.7pt79%
+7.8pt21%
+0.7pt19%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
32 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen59.643,2 €
24h-Volumen0 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
If the number of Republican Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
- To be included, candidates must:
- Be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; Be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; Lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
- In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
- For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
- In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
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If the number of Republican Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
- To be included, candidates must:
- Be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; Be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; Lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
- In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
- For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
- In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.