Margin of victory in the Hungarian parliamentary election?
Politik
KalshiGeschlossenVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGrob kalibriertDieser Markt wurde entschieden: TISZA, 12-15% (97%)
Entschieden: 19.04.2026, 01:09
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Aktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitTISZA, 12-15% 91.5%+3.7ptFührend unter 11 Optionen
Marktqualitat
11 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
0 €
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Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
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Aktualisiert vor 112 Tagen
Veraltet2. Apr. 26, 19:0012. Apr. 27, 14:00
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91.5%
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Plattformen vergleichen· TISZA, 12-15%
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiDiese SeiteBeste insgesamt | Niedrig | 97% | — | 0 € | 0 € | vor 112 Tagen | |
 PredictIt69% Übereinstimmung · geprüft | — | 99% | — | — | — | vor 106 Tagen | Öffnen → |
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What will be the margin of victory in the Hungarian parliamentary election?
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If the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election falls within 15% to 18%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Note: The party list vote will be used to resolve this market.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by TISZA minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind TISZA if TISZA wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if TISZA loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by TISZA minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind TISZA if TISZA wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if TISZA loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by TISZA minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if TISZA wins, or the electoral votes received by TISZA minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if TISZA does not.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If TISZA runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural TISZA will be summed.
- If TISZA wins the election, the margin will be positive. If TISZA loses the election, the margin will be negative. If TISZA ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where TISZA is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
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If the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election falls within 15% to 18%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Note: The party list vote will be used to resolve this market.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by TISZA minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind TISZA if TISZA wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if TISZA loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by TISZA minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind TISZA if TISZA wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if TISZA loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by TISZA minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if TISZA wins, or the electoral votes received by TISZA minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if TISZA does not.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If TISZA runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural TISZA will be summed.
- If TISZA wins the election, the margin will be positive. If TISZA loses the election, the margin will be negative. If TISZA ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where TISZA is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).