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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Politik
  3. Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?
Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?

Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?

14.8% (24h)Politik
KalshiKalshiGeschlossenVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr

Dieser Markt wurde entschieden: No (100%)

Entschieden: 01.06.2026, 13:17

Gewinnausgang

No

7 Tage vorher

—

24 Stunden vorher

89%

Konsens
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja 0%-14.8%
Marktqualitat

36 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

608,6 €

Liquidität

727,5 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

0.2% / 0.7%

Spread

250.0%

Breiter Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 11 Tagen

Veraltet
5. März 26, 15:0031. Mai 27, 14:00

Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf

Yes0%
No100%
0%25%50%75%100%30. Mai31. Mai1. Juni
Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja
-14.8%
0%
Nein
Nein
100%

Dieser Markt ist geschlossen. Demo-Trading ist nur bei offenen Märkten verfügbar.

Regeln

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Colombian presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round.
  • In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.
  • In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes.
  • Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies.
  • The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds.

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Regeln

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Colombian presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round.
  • In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.
  • In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes.
  • Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies.
  • The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds.