Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Count Binface Party 66.1%+4.0ptFührend unter 15 Optionen
Marktqualitat
60 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
631,9 €
Liquidität
20.194,2 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
76.0% / 78.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Minuten
9. Juli 26, 15:3013. Aug. 27, 14:00
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Count Binface Party78%
Plattformen vergleichen· Tony Mack
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBeste insgesamt80% Übereinstimmung · auto | Mittel | 1% | 0pt | 13.473,6 € | 299.209 € | vor 13 Minuten | Öffnen → |
 KalshiDiese Seite | Mittel | 1% | 0pt | 631,9 € | 20.194,2 € | vor 13 Minuten |
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Clacton by-election: 2nd place
11Mon
78%
50%
50%
+50 weitere Ergebnisse
74 • Mittlere QualitätEnger SpreadHohe Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen262.049,2 €
24h-Volumen13.473,6 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
If Reform UK finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Clacton by-election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place) For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals For proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order
- In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities).
- Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists.
- Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received.
- If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Große Trades
$1.6k78.0%POLYMARKETWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? — YesStraddleSellervor 21 Std.
POLYMARKETWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? — YesStraddleSellervor 21 Std.$3.2k75.2%POLYMARKETWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? — Yesharrisonhohman8vor 4 Tagen
POLYMARKETWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? — Yesharrisonhohman8vor 4 Tagen$2.8k94.4%POLYMARKETWill Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election? — NoTest669vor 13 Tagen
POLYMARKETWill Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election? — NoTest669vor 13 Tagen$1.1k90.5%POLYMARKETWill Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election? — Nogrothvor 18 Tagen
POLYMARKETWill Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election? — Nogrothvor 18 Tagen$1.2k80.6%POLYMARKETWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? — YesProfessionalPuntervor 19 Tagen
POLYMARKETWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? — YesProfessionalPuntervor 19 TagenVolumentrend
$7199. Juli19T Daten27. Juli
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If Reform UK finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Clacton by-election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place) For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals For proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order
- In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities).
- Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists.
- Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received.
- If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.