Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
CDU 32%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Marktqualitat
24 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
0 €
Liquidität
4,8 €
Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
29.0% / 35.0%
Spread
20.7%
Breiter SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute
17. Mai 26, 14:0020. Sept. 27, 14:00
Trends
Gewähltes Ergebnis
CDU32%
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Berlin State Election Winner
1.0%3Mon
+1.0%30%
+1.0%22%
+0.1%22%
+21 weitere Ergebnisse
80 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen2,3 Mio. €
24h-Volumen4173 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
If CDU wins the 2026 Berlin state election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
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If CDU wins the 2026 Berlin state election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.