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Daten vom 19.10.2026, 13:30 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Proof of non-exploitation published 6.5%
Proof of non-exploitation published 6.5%Marktqualitat
29 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
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Liquidität
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Liquidität unbekanntGeld / Brief
4.0% / 9.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadTrader
0
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Minuten
9. Juni 26, 00:29 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Proof of non-exploitation published6.5%
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Will the June 2026 Zcash Orchard pool vulnerability be proven to have not been exploited by December 31, 2026?
- This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a Mathematical Proof is published and accepted by the Source Agency demonstrating that the June 2026 Zcash Orchard shielded-pool soundness vulnerability (the under-constrained element in the Orchard Action circuit in the halo2_gadgets crate, present since Orchard activation in May 2022, disclosed by the Zcash Open Development Lab and Shielded Labs, and remediated via the emergency network upgrade activated June 1-3, 2026) was NOT exploited in a production environment prior to the deployment of the official remediation.
- "Mathematical Proof" means a cryptographically valid, formally verified, or peer-reviewed publication that demonstrates with mathematical or cryptographic certainty that the vulnerability was or was not exploited prior to remediation (e.g., formal circuit verification, exploit reconstruction, chain-state proof, supply-audit/turnstile-accounting mechanism, or an equivalent technique) and that is accepted by the Source Agency.
- This market resolves to NO if, on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a Mathematical Proof is published and accepted by the Source Agency demonstrating that the vulnerability WAS exploited, OR if no qualifying Mathematical Proof (of either exploitation or non-exploitation) is published and accepted by the Source Agency on or before that date.
- (For clarity: a NO resolution covers two distinct situations -- (i) a proof that the vulnerability WAS exploited, and (ii) the absence of any accepted Mathematical Proof either way by the deadline.
- A NO share should not be read as a bet that exploitation occurred.)