Will US translator jobs stay stable based on 2026 data (likely to be published Q1 2027)?
QuarterlyBusiness & CorporateMacro & Economy6ayManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 60.7%
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7
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis31 Ağu 26 15:27 UTC31 Mar 27 23:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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Manifold MarketsKurallar
US employment of human translators is “more or less stable, and is projected to remain stable over the next decade" (see Arvind Narayanan's ICML keynote: https://www.cs.princeton.edu/~arvindn/talks/icml-2026-annotated-slides/#s25).
- BLS data reflects this, US gov expects a slight growth of translator jobs in coming years.
- It would probably take 2 years to resolve this bet optimally - BLS data only comes out yearly, and over the last ten years, the total jobs number for this sector fluctates ~ 5% a year.
- The bet: BLS Current Population Survey annual-average U.S. employment in “Interpreters and translators” for 2026 will be at least 89,000.
- The bet resolves when BLS publishes the 2026 annual-average table.
- I chose 89,000 because it's an ~8% decline from 2025’s 97,000.
Açık piyasalar
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Will US translator jobs stay stable based on 2026 data (likely to be published Q1 2027)? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 61% fiyatlıyor.
- Will US translator jobs stay stable based on 2026 data (likely to be published Q1 2027)? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will US translator jobs stay stable based on 2026 data (likely to be published Q1 2027)? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Mart 2027.
- Will US translator jobs stay stable based on 2026 data (likely to be published Q1 2027)? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: US employment of human translators is “more or less stable, and is projected to remain stable over the next decade" (see Arvind Narayanan's ICML keynote: https://www.cs.princeton.edu/~arvindn/talks/icml-2026-annotated-slides/#s25).