How many seats will our model's most-likely Senate map be wrong on?
PolitikaOne-OffABD SiyasetiSeçim2026 ABD Ara Seçimleri28gManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini2 22%12 seçenek arasında lider
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9
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
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15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis26 Haz 26 04:26 UTC3 Kas 26 05:00 UTC
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[image]This market scores our statistical model's current most-likely U.S. Senate map — the modal projected winner of each of the 35 seats up in 2026.
- Each outcome is the exact number of those 35 seats the map gets wrong once the election resolves (0 through 10, plus "the named outcome").
- It is the self-calibration counterpart to the two third-party map markets:
- 53R map (@EnopoletusHarding)
- 53D map (@Jack1)
- The model expects ~5.6 of its own best-guess calls to be wrong — the election is genuinely uncertain, and even the most-likely map has real exposure to a correlated national swing (a fat "the named outcome" tail).