Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 79.3%
Tahminciler
2
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
11 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis14 Nis 26 18:13 UTC14 Nis 00 18:08 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Kurallar
In my LessWrong essay "Nectome: All That I Know", I make the claim: "Most cryonics clients wait over a day between legal death and being cryopreserved." This is hard to check, but might be possible to verify at some point in the future.
- This market will resolve YES if there is strong evidence that a majority of people who were cryopreserved before 2026 spent at least 24 hours after legal death but before having their remains vitrified at cryogenic temperatures.
- It will resolve NO if there is strong evidence that a majority were cryopreserved with less than a day's wait time.
- I won't resolve until there is clear, unambiguous evidence about how it should resolve.
- I also won't bet.
Sık sorulan sorular
- Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 15 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 79% fiyatlıyor.
- Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 14 Nisan 3000.
- Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: In my LessWrong essay "Nectome: All That I Know", I make the claim: "Most cryonics clients wait over a day between legal death and being cryopreserved." This is hard to check, but might be possible to verify at some point in the future.
