Brazil 2026 Election: Who Leads the Polling Average Two Months Before the Election? (1st Round)
PolitikaOne-OffSeçimSporSoccerLatin America7gManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiLula 91.4%4 seçenek arasında lider
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Gecikmeli26 Şub 26 12:414 Ağu 26 23:59
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Lula91%
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At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.
- Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
- Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
- The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
- If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.