Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
9.5 puan (24s)Teknoloji4ayManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiIFT 14 61.1%+9.5pt13 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
39
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
-21.3 pts
Piyasa verileri
38 dakika önce guncellendi
19 Mar 24 3:462 Oca 27 15:59
Trendler
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Kurallar
An 'orbit' here is defined as a trajectory on which if no re-entry burn is fired Starship would remain in space for a period of over 24 hours (I don't want to get 'burned' by some sort of wacky sub-orbital flight that still lands at Starbase or in the Atlantic after one circumnavigation.
- I will add an the named outcome if Other is larger than any other option for a non-trivial period of time (and so on, by induction)
- If SpaceX changes the naming convention, for example to OFT, this question will still apply.
- If SpaceX announces before the named outcome that the named outcome will orbit, the named outcome would be the one to resolve YES.
- If they did this I would still wait until before the (eg) #6 flight to check they didn't change it based on what happened in #5
Açık piyasalar
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Aug 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $71,000 or above+42.0pt99%
- $70,000 or above+23.0pt99%
- $70,500 or above+33.0pt99%
+97 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺265,3 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺143,3 Mn
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026?
- 240-259+34.8pt70.6%
- 260-279+3.9pt28.4%
- 280-299-13.6pt1%
+23 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIBTC price on Aug 21, 2026 at 11am EDT?
- $75,000 or above99%
- $75,100 or above99%
- $74,600 or above99%
+97 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺22,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺21,5 Mn
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets August 18 - August 25, 2026?
- 280-299+7.8pt20.2%
- 300-319+2.5pt17.2%
- 260-279+5.5pt14.1%
+23 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIBitcoin price at the end of 2026
- 70,000 to 74,999.99-1.9pt11.3%
- 75,000 to 79,999.99-0.7pt10.4%
- 80,000 to 84,999.99+4.2pt10.4%
+25 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIETH price on Aug 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $2,250 or above+31.0pt99%
- $2,130 or above+5.0pt99%
- $1,970 or above99%
+47 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺26,2 Mn
- Which company has best AI model end of August?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Aug 21, 2026?
- Where will it rain on Aug 21, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by which date?
- BTC price range on Aug 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Nasdaq-100 price on Aug 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- ETH price range on Aug 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- How many launches will SpaceX have in August?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Aug 21, 2026?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 21 Ağustos 2026 itibarıyla IFT 14 için 61% fiyatlıyor.
- Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2027.
- Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: An 'orbit' here is defined as a trajectory on which if no re-entry burn is fired Starship would remain in space for a period of over 24 hours (I don't want to get 'burned' by some sort of wacky sub-orbital flight that still lands at Starbase or in the Atlantic after one circumnavigation.