How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?

0.4 puan (24s)YearlyPolitika US Politics Seçim3ay

KalshiKullanılabilirliği kontrol etKYC gerekli%2 ücretDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiKabaca kalibre

Güncel ima edilen olasılık

4 55%

6 seçenek arasında lider

Piyasa kalitesi

55 / 100

Orta kalite

24s Hacim

₺2 B

Likidite

₺5,2 Mn

Yüksek likidite

Alis / Satis

4.2% / 8.5%

Spread

4.3 pt

Orta spread

Piyasa verileri

30 dakika önce guncellendi

18 Oca 26 17:003 Kas 26 15:00

Trendler

Sonuç24sOlasılık

Yalnızca sanal bakiye, gerçek para yokYatırım tavsiyesi değildir

Seçilen sonuç

54%

Tutar (USDT)

Kurallar

If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes.

To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.
If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes.

Hacim trendi

$43

2 Tem26g veri27 Tem

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Kurallar

If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes.

To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.
If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes.

How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?

0.4 puan (24s)YearlyPolitika US Politics Seçim3ay

KalshiKullanılabilirliği kontrol etKYC gerekli%2 ücretDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiKabaca kalibre

Güncel ima edilen olasılık

4 55%

6 seçenek arasında lider

Piyasa kalitesi

55 / 100

Orta kalite

24s Hacim

₺2 B

Likidite

₺5,2 Mn

Yüksek likidite

Alis / Satis

4.2% / 8.5%

Spread

4.3 pt

Orta spread

Piyasa verileri

30 dakika önce guncellendi

18 Oca 26 17:003 Kas 26 15:00

Trendler

Sonuç24sOlasılık

Yalnızca sanal bakiye, gerçek para yokYatırım tavsiyesi değildir

Seçilen sonuç

54%

Tutar (USDT)

Kurallar

If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes.

To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.
If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes.

Hacim trendi

$43

2 Tem26g veri27 Tem

İlgili Piyasalar

Which bills will become law in 2026?

₺163,5 B

College sports federalization: 23%

Blue wave in 2026?

How many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026?

₺0

Exactly 1: 65%

KALSHI

Will Elon register any party before 2027?

₺0

Evet: 3%

POLYMARKET

Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?

₺0

Evet: 9%

POLYMARKET

US bans social media for children in 2026?

₺0

Evet: 7%

KALSHI

Bu konularda aktif

BitcoinBTC$64,830.46+0.03%

EthereumETH$1,942.26+1.08%

SolanaSOL$75.57-0.05%

XRPXRP$1.09-1.49%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0719-1.26%

HyperliquidHYPE$56.84-3.73%

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Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News

White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk

Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News

White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph

Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.85% as Epstein files critique hits tapeBlockchain.News

Kurallar

If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes.

To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.
If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes.